【公司研究】中国海外发展 (688 HK) – 2019上半年基础盈利达210亿元

Summary. Revenue and core earnings grew by 5.4% to HK$93.4bn and 9.5% to HK$21.0bn in 1H19, respectively. We trim TP from HK$32.13 to HK$28.36, based on 30% discount to NAV. Maintain HOLD recommendation.

   

  • Net profit grew by 7.4% to HK$24.9bn in 1H19. Revenue and net profit gained 5.4% to HK$93.4bn and 7.4% to HK$24.9bn in 1H19, respectively. Excluding the revaluation gain, core earnings increased by 9.5% to HK$21.0bn in the period. Gross margin slightly declined by 0.9ppt to 34.9% but core net margin gained by 0.8ppt to 22.5% in 1H19. Excluding COGO (81 HK, BUY), pre-sold and unbooked properties amounted to HK$221.5bn and corresponding GFA was 9.09mn sq m as at Jun 2019.

  

  • Contracted sales increased 29% in 1H19. Contracted sales amount and area gained by 28.7% to HK$194.2bn and 8.9% to 9.22mn sq m in 1H19, respectively. Contracted ASP rose 18.3% to HK$21,066 per sq m in 1H19 as 6.3% of contracted sales came from HK & Macau. Including HK$33.1bn sales in Jul, the Company achieved 64.9% hit rate by Jul based on HK$350bn sales target. In 2H19, HK$500bn saleable resources will be launched for sales, hence COLI is confident to achieve sales target. Management also expects to have HK$400bn sales next year.

  

  • Total land bank of 91.75mn sq m. COLI acquired 24 plots of land with 4.64 mn sq m total GFA in 1H19. Total consideration was HK$75.2bn. The Company entered new markets of Shijiazhuang and Guiyang in the period. Total and attributable land bank amounted to 91.75mn sq m and 63.84mn sq m as at Jun 2019, respectively.

  

  • Aiming to have HK$10bn rental income by 2023. Revenue from commercial properties soared by 15.6% to HK$2.35bn in 1H19, of which office and mall rental were HK$1.67bn and HK$0.45bn, respectively. COLI had 72 commercial properties under operations with total rentable area of 3.1mn sq m. Another 5.78mn sq m of commercial properties are under construction and for future development. COLI aims to have HK$10bn rental income by 2023.

  

  • Maintain HOLD. Net gearing was 33.8% as at Jun 2019. Cost of debt stayed at low level of 4.28% in 1H19. We raise our earnings forecast by 9.5% to HK$49.1bn in 2019. We estimate end-20 NAV to be HK$40.51 per share. As a result, we trim TP from HK$32.13 to HK$28.36, representing a 30% discount to NAV.
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