【宏觀視角】2019年中國經濟 – 2019平穩收官,企穩趨勢自下而上

Economic growth stabilized at 6.0% in 4Q19, locking 2019 annual growth at 6.1%. Both figures fell short of our forecast by 0.1ppt mainly because of weaker-than-expected contribution from net export. Nonetheless, manufacturing activities and retail sales showed trends of recovery, boosted by certain industries in 4Q19. Over the year, consumption and investment contributed to 57.8%/31.2% of GDP growth, respectively, while net export to the rest. In 2020, we expect policy stimulation may kick in earlier than expected, represented in particular by fiscal expansion, i.e. speedier government bond issuance in 1Q.    .

   

  • Industrial value-added advanced 6.9% in Dec 2019 and 5.7% in 2019. The rebound in Dec was mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. Among the major industries, automobile manufacturing strengthened, enlarging value-added growth to 10.4% YoY in Dec 2019 (overall growth in 2019 was 1.8% YoY). High-tech manufacturing continued to outperform, of which output growth was 8.8% in 2019. We believe the recovery cycle for certain industries, driven by 5G launch and related technological capex increase, has just started and will continue into 2020.      

   

  • FAI growth accelerated thanks to manufacturing. FAI advanced 5.4% YoY in 2019, up 0.2ppt from Jan-Nov 2019. Manufacturing FAI accelerated 0.6ppt to 3.1% YoY in 2019. Growth was primarily led by computer, telecommunications and electronic manufacturing. Such trend may continue into the future along with 5G commercialization. Infrastructure FAI slid a bit to 3.8% in 2019 possibly due to decelerated construction in Dec. Real estate FAI advanced 9.9% YoY in 2019, among which construction expenditure was robust while land acquisition decline was gentler.       

     

  • Stable consumption in Dec. Retail sales growth maintained at 8.0% in Dec 2019, flat when compared to Nov 2019. Over the year, nominal/real growth was 8.0%/6.0%, respectively, and nominal growth was stable at 9.0% excluding car sales. Stabilization of retail sales growth in Nov and Dec was attributable to 1) robust demand before the CNY, stimulated further by “11.11” and “12.12” discounts; 2) recovering automobile sales – sales volume decline shrank gradually since Sep 2019 to 0.9% in Dec (annual figure declined 8-9% YoY). Online channel maintained high growth at 19.5% in 2019 thanks in part to higher penetration into lower-tier cities, boosting its share of overall goods sales to 20.7%.
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