【Company Research】Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Inc. (2500 HK) – First 5-yr follow-up results for VenusA and updated results for first retrievable TAVR in China

  • Data released for VenusA-Valve and VenusA-Plus during CIT 2020 Conference. VenusA-Valve’s pivotal trial released 5-year follow-up results. For all the enrolled 101 patients, mortality rate at 1-5 years after the TAVR procedures were 5.94%, 11.6%, 17.4%, 26.7%, 34.1%, respectively, indicating VenusA-Valve’s good durability. In addition, comparing to 1-yr data, its 5-yr data showed only slight increase in stroke (5 vs 1), myocardial infarction (3 vs 2) and renal failure (3 vs 2). As for efficacy, mean and peak AVG continued to decrease to 9.08mmHg and 19.65mmHg, respectively, in 5 years. Meanwhile, subjects’ effective orifice area increased to 1.62 cm2 in 5 years. VenusA-Plus also updated its 30-day results, which are better than that of VneusA-Valve, making VenusA-Plus a promising second generation TAVR candidate in China.

 

  • PowerX and Vitae are potential next-generation TAVR products. In CIT 2020 Conference, the Company disclosed two new TAVR products under development: post-release self-expanding valve PowerX system and new balloon-expandable valve Vitae system. Both PowerX and Vitae are preloaded dry valve systems, which are expected to significantly improve the anti-calcification performance and duration life of the valve by eliminating the traditional valvular treatment with glutaraldehyde while saving the loading time of during procedures. We expect PowerX to start clinical trials in 2H20E.

  

  • China TAVR market has large growth potential despite of fierce competition. Frost & Sullivan forecasts China TAVR market to grow at a 65.0% CAGR from US$28.7mn in 2018 to US$956.6mn in 2025E. Although four TAVR products have been approved in China, including an international player (SAPIEN 3 from Edwards), the penetration of TAVR procedures was very low in China. With more players entering into the market, the penetration will improve fast thanks to wide market education. As the first approved TAVR in China, VenusA-Valve has significant first mover advantage. A comprehensive and diversified product pipelines covering four major heart valves (TAVR, TPVR, TMVR and TTVR) as well as ancillary products also enhance the Company’s leadership in China.

 

  • Temporary impact from COVID-19 pandemic. There were delays in TAVR procedures during COVID-19 outbreak while sales are gradually recovering from March. We forecast 2,200 unit sales of VenusA-Valve in FY20E and 6,000 unit sales in FY21E, driven by expanding hospital channel coverage.

 

  • Maintain BUY new TP of HK$98.2. Considering the improving penetration of TAVR procedures and fast recovery sales of the Company, we expect total revenue to grow 48%/ 175%/ 63% YoY in FY20E/21E/22E and estimate VenusA-Valve sales unit to be 1,550/ 2,200/ 6,000 in FY20E/21E/22E. We lifted our DCF-based TP from HK$52.0 to HK$98.2 to reflect potential contribution from PowerX and Vitae (WACC: 9.1%, terminal growth rate: 4.0%).
点击阅读原文

公司地址:香港中环花园道三号冠君大厦45-46楼

电话:(852)3900-0888 传真:(852)3761-8788

招银国际版权所有 Copyright © 2019-2020 CMB International Capital Corporation Limited. All rights reserved.

  • 扫码关注我们
  • 扫码下载壹隆环球App