【Company Research】JNBY Design (3306 HK) – The worst is over and better visibility ahead

Upgrade to BUY and raise TP to HK$ 9.57 (same 10x FY6/21E P/E) after  raising FY20-22E EPS by 5-10% for better GP margin and opex control. Given turnaround ahead, an undemanding PE at 8x FY6/21E P/E (~ 1.5 s.d. below 3 years average) and attractive dividend yield (7%/ 9% in FY21E/22E), we think its overall risk-reward is excellent.  

 

  • We expect 11% sales and 29% net profit att. decline in FY6/20E. Referring to profit warning, we now forecast sales/ net profit to fall by 11%/ 29% YoY in FY6/20E, implying a 35% sales decline and net loss in 2H6/20E, mainly driven by: 1) operating deleverage for self-owned stores during the pandemic, 2) lower GP margin by higher retail discounts and 3) cancellation of sales as distributors return more inventories. With an unchanged 70% payout ratio, we expect FY6/20E dividend yield will be as high as 7%.

 

  • The worst should be over and JNBY is set to take more market share. According to NBS, apparel retail sales in China already improved a lot from 35% drop in Mar 2020 to close to flattish in May and Jun 2020. JNBY’s retail sales also recovered as it only fell 10-20% in May and back to almost flattish in Jun 2020, according to management. Going forward, trade fair orders for 3Q and 4Q20E is likely to record a decline, due to weakened distributors’ sentiment. However, JNBY, as a tier 1 brand in China, should be able to benefit from industry consolidation, consumption reshoring (higher domestic demand on limited international travel), and hence will recover sooner than overall industry, evidenced by a robust online growth of 20%+ YoY in 2Q20. 

 

  • Disruptions from COVID-19, in our view, are limited. Also, values of the returned items (for both 1Q20 and 4Q19 season) is only 10% higher than usual, which we think is not worrying and completely controllable. Those excessive inventories, in our view, can be cleared by utilizing more outlets as well as the regular clearance at quarter ends and should not create much pressure on overall retail discounts at regular stores. Unlike other peers, JNBY only provided a temporarily raise in return rate to 100%, but no greater rebates or lengthened credit period (the policy of cash prepayment for all trade fair orders remained), etc. Therefore, the negative impact on its GP margin and other costs should be less than the industry too.

 

  • Upgrade to BUY and raise TP to HK$ 9.57. We upgrade JNBY to BUY from Hold and lift TP to HK$ 9.57, based on 10x FY21E P/E (unchanged). We revised up FY20E/ 21E/ 22E EPS by 10%/ 8%/ 5%, to factor in: 1) weaker offline but strong online sales, 2) better GP margin and 3) better cost control. Fairly attractive given an 8x FY6/21E P/E and 7% FY6/20E yield.
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