【Company Research】Anta (2020 HK) – A stellar golden week after an in-line 3Q

Maintain BUY and reiterated our TP of HK$ 101.84, based on 32x FY21E P/E (unchanged). The 3Q numbers may just be in-line but the underlying fundamentals (stellar 10-1 performance, robust online even after offline re-opened, better weather, etc.), in our view, are encouraging. Therefore we are confident for an astonishing turnaround in 4Q20E and 1H21E and see the current valuation of 27x FY21E P/E attractive, vs Li Ning/ Nike/ Adidas’s 38x/ 35x/ 32x.  


  1. 3Q20 retail sales growth were roughly in-line. Anta/ FILA/ other brands’ retail sales growth were LSD/ 20-25%/ 50-55% in 3Q20, roughly in-line with CMBI est. of 5%/ 20% for Anta/ FILA, meaningful improved vs -ve LSD/ +ve MSD in 2Q20. The acceleration, in our view, was primarily driven by the faster e-commerce growth (50%+/ 90%+ for Anta/ FILA), as both active users and purchasing frequency had gone up after the pandemic.
  3. But 10-1 golden week was remarkable and better than expected. Management also highlighted sales growth for Anta/ FILA during the national holidays were 40%+/ 50%+. Other than the favorable factors such as: 1) a colder and earlier winter and 2) an extended holidays thanks to the mid-autumn festival, 3) the thoroughly prepared sales and marketing campaign by Anta/ FILA team was also a main driver. Management also become more confident on 4Q20E, as both the traffic and sentiment are returning healthily..
  5. Inventory remained excessive as at 3Q20 but it was a preparation for 10-1 golden week. Inventory to sales ratio for Anta/ FILA were still higher than normal at 6/ 8 months in 3Q20 (vs normal level of 4-5/ 6-7months). But the management stated that was reasonable to stock more before the long national day holidays and have reaffirmed their target of reducing the whole channel inventory to a “lower than FY19’s level” by FY20E.
  7. Amer performance in 3Q20 was better than expected. Amer’s sales was still falling YoY in 3Q20, but the decline had narrowed to less than 15% , comparing to ~20% drop in 1H20. Moreover, management is optimistic on at least a breakeven in 2H20E, thanks to the robust online, direct retail, and China growth (20%+), plus the effective costs saving measures implemented.
  9. Maintain BUY and reiterated our TP of HK$ 101.84. We maintained BUY and reiterated our TP of HK$ 101.84, based on 32x FY21E P/E (unchanged). We believe the valuation is justifiable at 27x FY21E P/E, given a 22% NP CAGR during FY19-22E.




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